Monsoon Forecasts Split Karachi Between Hope and Dread

KARACHI — Two forecasts, one city, and no way to hold both. The seasonal-prediction bureaus that Karachi lives and dies by have split this week over what the monsoon will do: one model line promises rain enough to refill the reservoirs and rest the new Makran corridor; the other sees the rains fail south of the city again, a fourth thin year in a row. A metropolis of many millions cannot plan on a coin toss, and so it plans for both — filling every vessel against drought while clearing the drains against flood, hedging the sky because the sky refuses to commit. "We used to fear the monsoon or pray for it," said a district water officer, watching the divided charts. "Now we do both at once, all summer, and call it planning." The desalination spine that eased the spring will hold the city through a dry season if it must, engineers say, though the margin is thin and the power bill steep. Between hope and dread, Karachi does the only thing a city can do with a forecast that cannot make up its mind: it waits, and it fills the pots.